Who It's For: Suppliers Bidding on EKAP Tenders
Budget Engine is built for suppliers preparing bids for Turkish public tenders published through EKAP. It targets pricing and business development teams that want a market-size reference before finalizing a bid and want to see over/under-pricing risk ahead of time.
- Contractors and suppliers preparing bids for EKAP tenders
- Pricing teams looking for a market reference before bid submission
- Business development teams sizing up opportunities early
The Problem: The Approximate Cost Isn't Always Visible
On EKAP tenders, the contracting authority's approximate cost is often kept confidential until the procurement process concludes. This leaves bidders pricing blind — risking either an unnecessarily thin margin or a non-competitive price that gets eliminated.
Manually researching comparable past tenders, finding the right OKAS/CPV category, and filtering genuinely comparable contracts can take hours — and the analysis has to be repeated for every new notice.
How It Works: From Comparables to Estimate
Budget Engine runs as a chain from historical contract data to today's tender. Each step's status is marked separately.
- OKAS/CPV classification Live
Classifying the tender under its Common Public Procurement Vocabulary (OKAS) code.
- Comparable pool construction Live
Retrieving completed past contracts from the same OKAS family (procurement_value_facts).
- Economic / unit-price normalization Live
Making amounts from different dates and currencies comparable.
- Confidence tier assignment Live
Selecting an Indicative / Market Evidence / Insufficient Data band based on comparable count and data quality.
- Verified tier Planned
The highest confidence band, to be unlocked once production-grade backtesting passes.
- Transparent presentation Live
Showing the estimate on the tender screen with its confidence tier and a 'not official' disclaimer.
Three Layers
Resmi Yaklaşık Maliyet Motoru
When the contracting authority publishes an official approximate cost on EKAP, this layer retrieves and caches it from the notice page. This is the authority's own official figure — not an estimate.
- Live today: retrieval and caching of the official approximate cost from the EKAP detail page
- Only available when the authority chooses to publish it — not every notice discloses it
Verilere Dayalı Bütçe Tahmin Motoru (EKAP)
When no official figure is published, this layer produces a statistical reference-class estimate from historical contracts in the same OKAS family. The result always carries a confidence tier and is never presented as official.
- Live today: estimates at the Indicative and Market Evidence tiers
- Planned: the Verified tier — production-grade backtesting has not yet cleared this bar, so it is deliberately kept closed
- When no comparable exists, the system explicitly returns 'insufficient data' instead of guessing
Uluslararası Ödül Karşılaştırma Motoru (UNGM)
A separate statistical similarity engine over UNGM contract award data, independent of the EKAP pipeline, is in development. Today this layer does not produce a numeric budget estimate — it only surfaces contextual signals such as match tier and comparable count.
- Today: numeric estimate is deliberately closed; only match context is available
- Planned: numeric estimates with EKAP-style transparent confidence tiers
Methodology & Transparency Approach
Budget Engine's design principle is never to claim certainty without evidence. Every estimate discloses how many comparable contracts it is based on, which confidence tier it falls into, and that it is not an official figure.
The Verified tier requires the engine to pass production-grade backtesting. Backtest results to date have not cleared that bar, so the Verified tier is kept closed across all tenders — this is not a bug, it is the engine's own safety boundary: no estimate is presented as 'verified' until the test is passed.
- Indicative and Market Evidence: based on technical thresholds, open today
- Verified: closed across all tenders until backtesting passes
- No comparable data → an explicit 'insufficient data' result, never a fabricated number
Source-Evidenced Estimation Approach
Every estimate is grounded in real, completed past contracts (procurement_value_facts) — never a fabricated or generic average. When comparable count is low or data quality is weak, the system says so explicitly. This is the budget-estimation application of our platform-wide principle: trace every data point to its source, and never hide uncertainty.
Use Cases
See the price range of comparable past contracts in the same OKAS category before you price your bid.
Compare the tier-labeled estimate against your own pricing to gauge competitive position.
See it automatically the moment the authority publishes it.
EKAP-style transparent numeric estimates for UNGM tenders.
Integration Scope
Today the engine produces numeric estimates only for EKAP (Turkish public tenders). International expansion is experimental.
| Source | Status | Description |
|---|---|---|
| EKAP (Turkey) | Live | Official approximate cost + data-driven estimate are live |
| UNGM (United Nations) | Planned | A separate engine exists; numeric estimate deliberately closed |
| World Bank, EBRD, TED | Planned | Budget estimation integration not built yet |
Honest Product Status
The table below summarizes the current real status of every capability described on this page.
| Capability | Status | Description |
|---|---|---|
| EKAP official approximate cost retrieval | Live | In production, requires a premium plan |
| EKAP data-driven estimate (Indicative / Market Evidence) | Live | In production, shown as a card on the tender screen |
| Verified confidence tier | Planned | Backtest threshold not yet met, deliberately closed |
| Automated refresh (cron) | Live | Daily award classification + budget analysis every 3 hours |
| UNGM/international numeric budget estimate | Planned | A separate engine exists; numeric value not yet exposed |
Frequently Asked Questions
Which tenders does Budget Engine cover?
Today it produces numeric estimates only for Turkish public tenders published through EKAP. A separate, experimental engine exists for UNGM, but its numeric estimate is not yet open.
Is the estimate an official figure?
No. It is a statistical reference derived from comparable past contracts, always shown with a confidence tier and a 'not official' disclaimer. The authority's own official approximate cost is shown separately, only when published.
When will the Verified tier be active?
This tier requires the engine to pass production-grade backtesting. Results so far have not cleared that bar; no specific date is committed.
What happens if no comparable tender is found?
The system does not fabricate a number — it explicitly returns an 'insufficient data' result.
Is access to Budget Engine free?
No, it requires a premium plan. Free-tier users cannot access this feature.
How many historical records does it use?
The reference pool draws on more than 17,900 historical EKAP records, growing over time as ingestion continues.
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